MLP Atlanta Survival Kit: Rally Scoring Myths Debunked!
Defend yourself against common commentator misconceptions!
MLP Atlanta is upon us!
Be prepared to have your sanity tested by commentators acting like Rally Scoring is some weirdly volatile format compared to Traditional Scoring—this is false as we have shown.
In this installment, we will be protecting you against the following common commentator misconceptions about Rally Scoring:
“You have to play differently than Traditional Scoring” 👎
“Rally Scoring is SO different, because if you miss a serve it’s not just a sideout, it’s a point!” 🤦🏼♂️
“‘Anything’ can happen in Rally Scoring!” 🙄
Debunked below 👇
Myth #1: “You have to play Rally Scoring differently than Traditional Scoring.” 👎
Not true!
Just because many players do play differently at MLP does not mean the reason they do so is because of Rally Scoring
Just because many players think Rally Scoring is significantly different from a competition perspective does not mean it is different
Just because rally scoring feels significantly different to some players and/or fans does not mean it is different. It’s important to feel comfortable as a player, so yes, players that subscribe to the misconceptions are likely to approach it differently.
As our article this past Spring demonstrated, both Rally Scoring and Traditional Scoring are producing about 40 rallies per game without any significant differences in Serving Team rally-win %. Furthermore, teams that arrived at game point won at the same rate (~90%) in both formats.
There are REAL differences, of course, between the formats (minimal stacking, serving to the same receiver, more consistent game length), but over a large sample size, these differences have a negligible effect on who actually wins the game and why. The most important piece is that the same number of rallies are played (on average).
So what makes MLP seem so different or volatile from a format perspective? We cover that below in our last debunk 🧐.
Myth #2: “Rally Scoring is so different, because if you miss a serve it’s not just a side out, it’s a point!” 🤦🏼♂️
This is perhaps the most annoying and common comment we hear at every rally scoring event. While true at the surface level, this observation is completely blind to two significant factors:
The implication is that losing on-serve points in Traditional Scoring is free—it is NOT free, because it means your opponents have earned the right to score on the next rally or else now find themselves one server closer to a side out. Every rally is equally important in both formats because the average number of rallies is the same.
Points are only worth half as much in rally scoring to 21 as they are in traditional scoring to 11. Points in each format do not carry equal weight. In Rally Scoring, each point gets you 4.8% closer to the winning score. In Traditional Scoring, each point gets you 9.1% closer to the winning score. Effectively, in Traditional Scoring, winning a point on-serve carries with it the added value of having earned the side out(s) that gave you the opportunity to score (again demonstrating that side outs cost about the same in both formats).
Myth #3: “‘Anything’ can happen in Rally Scoring!” 🙄
The factor that has the single biggest effect on the apparent volatility of MLP outcomes is NOT Rally Scoring—it’s the fact that there are no best-of-three matches between doubles teams. Teams cannot rely on winning the next two games, the have to win NOW or they lose now. This is a factor worthy of adjustments in how you attack opponents strategically—not the format.
Another factor is the parity between teams that is applied through the draft system. The best two players will never end up on the same team in MLP, though that is the norm at regular tour events.
Again, neither of these are due to the scoring system used at MLP events.
Should MLP move to a best-of-three format?
No. And we don’t say this because the sport needs to keep the “drama.” We say this because the current format is just as fair a reflection of the players on each team as a best-of-three match at a tour event!
Let us explain.
At a tour event, assuming each game averages 40 rallies, each individual player will have 80-120 rallies to have an impact on the result. At MLP, players get 80 rallies on average to have an impact on their overall match result across both gender and mixed doubles—add 10 more rallies if the match goes to a Dreambreaker.
SO, in the end, while individual game results at MLP can be surprising, they are no more surprising than individual game results at any regular tour event. We just easily ignore all the times Ben & Collin lose a game, because they almost never lose a match!
Rally Scoring Changes
MLP Atlanta will be different in some ways due to the recent changes to their rally scoring format. They’ve done away with the 20-18 “freeze” system and are moving to a new “must win on-serve” model. This means that the only times a rally will not result in a point is if a team leading with 20 points earns a side out. Under this rule, once tied at 20, all subsequent rallies will result in a point.
While we do not expect this will cause a gigantic shift in MLP results, it does add volatility and is likely to shorten the average length of games. It also makes it suddenly much more likely (almost never happened before) for the team that wins fewer rallies to win the game—and it’s actually already happened! At the MLP Australia finals men’s doubles game, the team that won 25 rallies lost to the team that only won 24 rallies (24-22).
While it was 25% of the games in the final, we anticipate this will only happen about 5% of the time (too much, in our opinion).
As always, we will be collecting the data and share more once we have the facts! Meanwhile, enjoy MLP Atlanta now that you have protection from these common Rally Scoring myths 😊.